Storyline:
Legal and political experts have warned of dangerous escalations and impacts on global trade following Iran's unprecedented attacks on Israel, which have significantly heightened regional tensions, with all parties striving to emerge as victors in an increasingly complex conflict.

In an unprecedented move on Saturday evening, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) launched a barrage of missiles and drones in a retaliatory attack directly on Israel for the first time, targeting major cities such as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

The move triggered air raid sirens and loud booms across Israel. But the vast majority of the attacks were thwarted by air defense systems, according to local news reports.

Moen Oair, a scholar in international law and conflict resolution, voiced serious concerns about the situation's complexity and potential for further escalation in an interview with China Global Television Network (CGTN) on Saturday.

He questioned whether Iran was prepared for the potential repercussions of their actions, noting that the United States plays a critical role in determining Israel's military response.

Oair further commented on the broader implications of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, suggesting that recent events could lead to a shift in how Israel engages with Iran and its associated targets.

Oair also speculated on the diplomatic fronts, emphasizing the challenging road ahead for international relations and peace efforts. He highlighted the complex dynamics at play, involving both direct military confrontations and broader geopolitical strategies.

Joseph Gregory Mahoney, a professor of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University in Shanghai, discussed the broader impact of the conflict on global trade, particularly noting disruptions in the Red Sea region.

Shotlist:
Jerusalem - April 14, 2024:
1. Missiles flying over buildings;
Washington D.C., USA - April 13, 2024:
2. SOUNDBITE (English) Moen Oair, attorney of international law; graduate student in Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution, George Mason University:
"It's a very dangerous moment for all of us around the world even. I'm not sure that the Iranians are ready for an attack as strong as an Israeli attack, while Israel has already announced that they will attack harshly back. I think everything is in the American hands now. The Biden administration can decide which level Israeli government and Israeli military can respond to this, but it's a very, very dangerous moment now, and I think we all should be very worried.";
FILE: Washington D.C., USA - Date Unknown:
3. Various of White House;
Washington D.C., USA - April 13, 2024:
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Moen Oair, attorney of international law/graduate student in Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution, George Mason University (partially overlaid with shots 5-8):
"From one side, I believe that Israel will think twice now before attacking Iran or Iranian targets. From the other side, maybe the Israelis will see this as a very good opportunity for them to eliminate totally Hamas and to attack Rafah even [more] harshly in the coming days or weeks. Based on what happened, maybe they will try now to use this attack to market themselves as victims again and to show the world that Hamas should not continue being in Gaza, because it's a big threat for them and Iranian policy.";
[SHOTS OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE]
FILE: Israel - Nov 1, 2022:
5. Various of Knesset, Israeli Parliament building;
FILE: Rafah City, Gaza Strip - 2024:
6. Various of tents, displaced people;
Khan Younis, Gaza Strip - April 11, 2024:
7. Thick black smoke rising behind destroyed buildings;
Khan Younis, Gaza Strip - April 9, 2024:
8. Various of caravans moving through destroyed neighborhoods;
[SHOTS OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE]
Tehran, Iran - April 14, 2024:
9. Various of demonstrators waving flags, shouting slogans;
Washington D.C., USA - April 13, 2024:
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Moen Oair, attorney of international law/graduate student in Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution, George Mason University (starting with shot 9):
"For sure, there's a direct and indirect diplomatic war happening now. Hopefully, this will lead to at least to take the situation back to kind of 'cold war' or not in direct conflict. But I think we are in a totally different situation now, especially that for the first time, Israel attacked the Iranian's diplomatic missions. Iran is launching a direct attack from its own land to Israel. It's a very complicated issue. I think there's a lot of work for diplomats to do. But the problem will be the political interest for both regimes, both governments, that they try to market it for their own people and to show that they are really able to go out of this conflict as winners.";
Damascus, Syria - April 1, 2024 :
11. Various of destroyed building within compound of Iranian embassy, excavator in operation, locals;
12. Plate reading "Consular Section of Embassy of Iran";
FILE: Yemen - February 2024:
13. Various of port facilities, ships at sea;
Shanghai, China - April 14, 2024:
14. SOUNDBITE (English) Joseph Gregory Mahoney, Politics and International Relations professor, East China Normal University (starting with shot 13):
"We know that it has had a negative impact on trade. We know that it has forced a lot of trade to go around Southern Africa. But it's also at the same time, I think, speaking to the genius of the Belt Road Initiative, building these shipping channels across Central Asia into Europe. That will help take some of the burden off these developments. But certainly, it's something that has concerned China and further escalation will risk putting more downward pressure, not only in the global economy but China's economy as well.";
FILE: Iran - Date Unknown:
15. Various of Iranian national flag, traffic.

[RESTRICTIONS: No access Chinese mainland/Al-Arabiya/Persian language TV Stations outside Iran. Strictly No Access BBC Persian/VOA Persian/Manoto TV/Iran International TV]