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01:24
US: Financial institutions sound recession alert on US growth
Major financial institutions have lowered their forecasts for U.S. economic growth this year and sounded alerts for a potential recession following the United States' massive "reciprocal tariffs" on its trading partners. The "reciprocal tariffs" have caused fear in financial markets, causing the U.S. stock futures to open sharply lower on Sunday night, signaling another volatile week ahead as global trade tensions escalate. S&P 500 E-minis tumbled four percent. Dow dropped 3.8 percent, and Nasdaq futures dropped 4.6 percent. Crude oil benchmarks also fell sharply in early trading Monday, and Brent futures and West Texas Intermediate futures dropped more than three percent, their lowest levels since April 2021. Goldman Sachs said that the implemented U.S. tariffs will raise inflation and weigh on U.S. economic growth. It also predicted that the U.S. stock market, which has recently experienced a sharp decline, may not have bottomed out yet. Previously, Goldman Sachs had raised the probability of a recession for U.S. economy within the next 12 months from 20 percent to 35 percent, saying that aggressive tariff policies will increase inflation and unemployment rates, hinder economic growth, and heighten the risk of recession. The UBS recently predicted that tariff policies will raise the U.S. CPI by two percent and pose challenges for the Federal Reserve. It also said that the tariff policies will greatly slow down U.S. economic growth, with this year's GDP growth expected to be below one percent or even see retraction within the year. UBS also said that U.S. imports from other regions of the world will decrease by over 20 percent in the coming quarters, indicating a significant adjustment in the U.S. macroeconomy. According to Bloomberg's report on Saturday, JPMorgan expects the U.S. economy to enter a recession this year due to the impact of tariff policies. Citibank lowered its growth forecast for the United States to 0.1 percent on Friday, and Barclays predicted a contraction in U.S. GDP in 2025. The U.S. financial service provider PNC Bank warned that the ongoing trade war significantly heightens the risk of a U.S. recession. Deutsche Bank cautioned that tariff policies might even trigger a dollar crisis, undermining market confidence in the currency. SHOTLIST: Beijing, China - April 7, 2025 1. Graphic showing fall of U.S. stock future, caused by "reciprocal tariffs"; 2. Graphic showing major financial institutions' forecast on U.S. economy; FILE: Washington D.C., USA - October 2024 3. Various of White House; 4. Various of street view, U.S. national flags, traffic, buildings; 5. New York Stock Exchange building, U.S. national flags; Detroit, Michigan, USA - March 17, 2025 6. Various of buildings; FILE: Racine, Wisconsin State, USA - December 2019 7. Various of workers in farming equipment factory; FILE: Los Angeles, USA - Date Unknown 8. Containers at port; 9. Various of vessels at port; 10. Various of crane moving container at port. [Restrictions: No access Chinese mainland]
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