Greenland - May 20, 2025 Credit: Dr Tom Chudley, Durham University Greenland and Antarctica — A new study warns that the current 1.5°C target of the Paris Climate Agreement is too high to protect the polar ice sheets from severe melting and dangerous sea level rise. Research led by Durham University suggests that the global temperature limit should be closer to 1°C above pre-industrial levels to avoid major ice loss. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets hold enough ice to raise sea levels by nearly 65 meters if melted. Since the 1990s, ice loss from these sheets has quadrupled. Currently, about 370 billion tonnes of ice melt each year at 1.2°C of warming. If temperatures reach 1.5°C, scientists warn that sea levels could rise several meters over the coming centuries. This rise would cause huge damage to coastal and island communities and displace hundreds of millions of people. Currently, 230 million people live within one meter of sea level and face an existential threat from melting ice. The study highlights the urgent need for governments to recognize these risks and aim for lower temperature goals. Even small differences in warming can have big impacts on ice sheet stability and sea level rise. Experts call for more research to better define a “safe” temperature target. The study, published in Communications Earth and Environment, includes researchers from the UK and USA. Lead author Professor Chris Stokes said halting warming as soon as possible is vital because every fraction of a degree matters. Other experts pointed to past warm periods that led to several meters of sea level rise at 1.5°C or above. Professor Rob DeConto emphasized that ice loss effects may last thousands of years and may not fully reverse until the next ice age. Ambassador Carlos Fuller of Belize, a vulnerable coastal nation, stressed the urgent need to stay within or close to the 1.5°C limit to protect communities. The research was funded by the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council.