A seemingly counter-intuitive plan to shrink next year's rice harvest has ignited debate across Japan, with growers fearing lost income and shoppers bracing for even higher prices at a time when the consumer price of a bag of five-kg rice already stands at about 4,235 yen (about 27 U.S. dollars), with premium brands topping 5,000 yen in the shops. According to the latest plan released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the target for 2026 staple rice output is set at 7.11 million tonnes, 370,000 tonnes below this year's target. The move reversed a pledge made in July by then-prime minister Ishiba Shigeru to end decades of reducing rice paddy acreage and instead expand production. Calculations by a Tokyo-based research institute, show that Japan's high rice prices are not a result of the current rice shortage, but reflect the slow pace of price changes, which only generally drop after two years of surplus production. With diets diversifying and the population shrinking, Japan's long-term demand for rice is falling, and some analysts have pointed out that preemptive cuts actually protect farm income by preventing gluts, and avoiding costly stockpiling. The explanation has convinced few. Grocery chains want cheaper grain, while consumers worry about fresh spikes. "As a retailer I'd love abundant supply and lower prices, but that hurts growers. The government should help cut production costs instead," said the manager of a Tokyo grocery store. "Please don't let the rice shortages return. Even with output curbs they must secure the quantity we need. Frankly, I don't expect prices to fall in the coming days, but any further rise would be a very heavy burden for us," said a shopper. Meanwhile, erratic weather, soaring fuel bills and the policy flip-flop have muddled market signals, analysts say, making near-term price relief for consumers unlikely. Shotlist: Tokyo, Japan - Recent: 1. Various of grocery store, bags of rice for sale; 2. Various of Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries entrance, sign; 3. Various of rice, rice in storage barn; 4. Various of restaurants, people eating rice; 5. Various of rice being harvested; 6. SOUNDBITE (Japanese) grocery store manager (name not given)(partially overlaid with shot 7): "As a retailer I'd love abundant supply and lower prices, but that hurts growers. The government should help cut production costs instead." [SHOT OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE]; 7. Various of rice being processed [SHOT OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE]; 8. SOUNDBITE (Japanese) shopper (name not given)(partially overlaid with shot 9): "Please don't let the rice shortages return. Even with output curbs they must secure the quantity we need. Frankly, I don't expect prices to fall in the coming days, but any further rise would be a very heavy burden for us." [SHOT OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE]; 9. Various of bags of rice on grocery store shelves [SHOTS OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE]; 10. Rice transplanter working in paddy field; 11. Rice; 12. Various of piles of sacks of rice. [Restrictions: No access Chinese mainland]