United States - October 02, 2024

Israel's threat to target Iran's oil production infrastructure, including gas and oil rigs, refineries and storage facilities, has heightened market concerns about international crude oil supply, leading to a significant spike in international oil prices during the U.S. trading session on Tuesday.

The price of both U.S. light crude oil and Brent Crude Oil Futures rose by more than 2 percent on Tuesday with the upward trend continuing into Wednesday.

The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached 72.13 dollars per barrel in Wednesday morning trading while London Brent Crude Oil Futures for December delivery reached 75.74 dollars per barrel.

During the U.S. trading session on Tuesday, international oil prices surged by over 5 percent, reaching an intraday high, but later retreated as market sentiment gradually stabilized.

Tensions in the Middle East have heightened concerns about oil supply, yet analysts believe that it is unlikely to lead to a long-term and significant disruption in global crude oil supply.

Iran is among the world's top 10 oil producers, with a production of 3.277 million barrels per day in August this year, according to the monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Market estimates suggest that Iran exports approximately half of its oil production. Investors are concerned that the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, the potential attack on Iran's oil facilities or Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could heighten the risk of further increases in oil prices.

International oil prices are also facing widespread pressure from oversupply and weak demand. Several Wall Street investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have lowered their long-term oil price expectations, and Citigroup has projected that oil prices could fall to around 60 dollars per barrel by 2025.

Shotlist:
USA - Oct 2, 2024:
FILE: Iran - 2023
1. Various of South Pars gas field, production facilities;
USA - Oct 2, 2024
2. SOUNDBITE (English) Sara Vakhshouri, president, SVB Energy International (partially overlaid with shot 5/ending with shot 6):
"There is now uncertainty about where is the next target. Energy facilities, critical infrastructures could be the other target. Looking at where the prices will go, definitely it depends on where the destruction would be and how much oil is going to be taken off the market. But historically, we have seen that geopolitical factors, if the impact is not in a larger scale and could be mitigated, is not huge.";
[SHOT OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE]
FILE: Isfahan, Iran - Nov 9, 2023
3. Various of oil refining facilities;
[SHOT OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE]
4. Various of oil refining facilities, workers.

[Restriction - No access Chinese mainland/Al-Arabiya/Persian language TV Stations outside Iran. Strictly No Access BBC Persian/VOA Persian/Manoto TV/Iran International TV]