Buenos Aires, Argentina - July 19, 2023

At a World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) event, experts agreed on the forecast of a more active than normal hurricane season in Central America and the Caribbean, and the possibility that the "La Nina" phenomenon could repeat a scenario of historic droughts in the south of the continent, such as those recorded between 2020 and 2023, which hit Argentina and its agricultural production. Faced with this scenario, they urged people to take precautions in the face of these extreme phenomena.

"We have just gone through those three years with a fairly prolonged La Nina event that brought droughts in southern South America, extreme, historic droughts, with great impact, and then a fairly rapid transition to the El Nino phenomenon," said Jose Luis Stella, from the Regional Climate Centre for southern South America.

"Now, again, we are in a transition back to La Nina. We are not only in an extreme climate, but also in a fairly extreme and rapid variability (...) I think it is good to reflect on how these El Nino and La Nina phenomena are impacting in a context of climate change," he said.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to variations in Pacific Ocean temperatures, which consist of two opposing patterns or episodes, El Nino (warm phase) and La Nina (cold phase) that last between nine and 12 months, and occur every two to seven years, although they do not have a regular calendar.

El Nino and La Nina patterns have consequences in different parts of the world, and in Latin America they have impacted the production of key crops such as wheat, rice and maize, affecting the economies of countries that are highly dependent on raw materials.

"In addition to drought in South America, the La Nina event is usually characterised by an increase in the frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean, something that is already evident with the presence of Hurricane Beryl," said Rodney Martinez, WMO representative for North and Central America and the Caribbean.

Beryl reached Category 5, setting the tone for a "very dangerous" hurricane season, the WMO said Tuesday.
The outlook for a more active hurricane season is also shared from projections made in Central America, according to Karina Hernandez of Costa Rica's National Meteorological Institute. "Temperatures have been warm and continue to warm in both the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic. Regarding the hurricane season, it is considered more active than normal. How much more active, we still don't have a regional consensus," she said.

SHOTLIST:
1. various droughts in Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, Argentina (Jul 19, 2023);
2. various droughts in Sao Paulo, Brazil (Aug 5, 2022).