As Eid al-Fitr 2025 approaches, the traditional markets in Tanjungpinang City, Riau Islands, Indonesia, are bustling with activity. Many Indonesians, especially those living on small islands, rely on boats to reach these markets. However, beneath the festive surface, a concerning economic anomaly has been highlighted by the think tank Center for Reform on Economics (CORE Indonesia). Their report, titled *"Beware of Consumption Anomalies Ahead of Eid 2025,"* reveals unusual trends in household consumption, which typically contributes 54-55% to Indonesia's GDP. Contrary to expectations, Ramadan and Eid in 2025 have not spurred significant spending, instead showing signs of weakened purchasing power among Indonesians.

One of the key indicators of this anomaly is the deflation trend in early 2025. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded deflation in February 2025, both monthly (-0.48%) and annually (-0.09%). While the drop in housing and utility prices—driven by government electricity discounts—explains part of this trend, the deflation in food, beverages, and tobacco (-0.12% monthly) is unusual. Historically, these categories have contributed to inflation during Ramadan due to increased demand. The decline in real sales index (IPR) by 0.5% year-on-year, particularly in food and tobacco sales (-1.7%), further underscores weakening consumption. Retail giants like Indomaret and Alfamart have seen significant sales growth slowdowns, signaling broader economic pressures.

CORE Indonesia attributes this anomaly to rising layoffs and difficulties in securing formal employment, reflecting early deindustrialization in the country. Additionally, a 24% decline in Eid travelers compared to 2024 suggests reduced disposable income among lower-middle-class households. If left unaddressed, this trend could erode domestic economic performance and lower living standards, potentially triggering social conflicts amid rising living costs. The report warns that without intervention, Indonesia's economic resilience and social stability may be at risk in the coming years.