This footage was filmed and produced 20 September 2023.

The world is heading towards a low-fertility future, with more than 97 per cent of countries and territories projected to have fertility rates below those needed to maintain population size over time by the year 2100. However, relatively high fertility rates in many low-income countries, particularly in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to drive population increases in these areas throughout the century. This "demographically divided world" will have enormous consequences for economies and societies, warns a study published in The Lancet.

The research is based on estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2021, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine, which analyses past, current and future global, regional and national trends in fertility and live births. In general, countries need a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per person able to give birth to maintain long-term generational replacement of the population. A population's TFR is the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime, assuming that fertility remains constant during the reproductive years.

Using innovative methods to forecast mortality, fertility, key drivers of fertility (such as educational attainment, unmet need for modern contraception, infant mortality and living in urban areas) and live births, the researchers estimate that by 2050, 155 of 204 (76 per cent) countries and territories will be below replacement level fertility. The number of countries and territories below replacement level is expected to increase to 198 of 204 (97 per cent) by 2100.

SHOTLIST:
1. various baby births in Madrid (Jan 19, 2022);
2. various children's births in Seoul and Tokyo (Sep 20, 2023 / Oct 4, 2022).