SHOTLIST: GERMANY (AUG. 21, 2025) (ANADOLU VIA ZOOM - ACCESS ALL) 1. MARTIN KOBLER, FORMER GERMAN AMBASSADOR, SPEAKING IN INTERVIEW (English) GERMANY - AUG. 21, 2025: Pressure is mounting on Germany to take a firmer stance against Israel as it aggressively expands its military offensive in Gaza and continues using starvation as a weapon of war. Following weeks of escalating criticism, Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently announced that he will no longer authorize exports to Israel of arms that could be used in Gaza, triggering divided reactions across the political spectrum. While pro-Israel advocacy groups criticized the decision, opposition figures and some political analysts characterized it as both insufficient and significantly delayed. According to these experts, Germany needs to align with its European partners in applying coordinated pressure on the Netanyahu government to end the Gaza offensive and ensure unimpeded humanitarian aid access for Palestinian civilians. Muriel Asseburg, a senior foreign policy expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, believes Merz’s move, though restrained, sends an important signal to the Netanyahu government that its actions in Gaza and violations of international law will have diplomatic consequences. “Does it come late? Yes, I think so. But I think it will still have an effect. We already see how it’s being discussed in Israeli media and in political circles. So, the signal is clearly received,” she told Anadolu. “Israel doesn’t have so many friends and supporters in the world anymore. Germany, the country which is the second-largest arms exporter to Israel after the US, has now started to become hesitant in unconditionally backing Israel. That is a signal that is important.” Germany has long been a staunch supporter of Israel, with political leaders repeatedly emphasizing the country’s responsibility stemming from its Nazi past and the Holocaust. However, this stance began to shift in recent months, particularly after Netanyahu announced a Cabinet decision earlier in August to expand the military offensive, seize Gaza City, and displace its population. Israel’s ongoing assault has already killed more than 62,100 Palestinians in Gaza since October 2023. It has devastated the entire enclave, and along with a blockade on aid, created famine-like conditions that have led to at least 271 Palestinians dying of starvation and malnutrition, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. - Reasons and timing According to Asseburg, several factors influenced Merz’s recent decision: growing international outcry over the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, increasing criticism from his coalition partner – the Social Democrats – on the government’s Israel policy, and the failure of diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire. “The chancellor and the foreign minister have been in constant exchange with their Israeli counterparts and have tried to convince them to open Gaza for humanitarian aid access. But all this pleading with the government has just led to nothing,” she said, referring to Merz’s conversations with Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul's visits to Tel Aviv. “The second factor is domestic public opinion. A vast majority of Germans are now saying we should have a harsher policy towards Israel. We cannot continue to support Israel unconditionally in view of what is happening in Gaza. “The third factor, I think, is the international climate and Germany’s closest partners, especially France and the UK, assuming a much tougher stance towards Israel.” A recent survey by German public broadcaster ARD revealed a significant shift in public opinion regarding the country’s stance on Israel. The representative poll found that 66% of Germans believe their government should exert greater pressure on Israel regarding its actions in Gaza, with only 24% disagreeing. Significantly, 62% rejected the long-held notion that “Germany bears a greater responsibility than other countries for the protection of Israel due to its historical past,” while just 31% supported this traditional position. Still, according to Asseburg, while Merz’s recent announcement sends an important message to the Netanyahu government, it does not represent a significant departure from Germany’s traditional Israel policy. Rather than implementing a comprehensive arms embargo or stopping all weapons exports, Merz has only suspended approval of new permits for weapons that might be used in Gaza, she said. The senior expert emphasized that to be taken seriously by the Netanyahu government, Germany needs to implement further measures in coordination with its European partners. These could include suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement or imposing sanctions on far-right Israeli ministers. “Europeans can have much more influence on the government of Israel if they choose to do so. This means they have to act in unison. If they keep acting apart and each one pursues different policies, I don’t think they will have enough leverage,” she said. “For example, a suspension of the association agreement, or a partial suspension, can be achieved if Germany and Italy agree. So far, they have been blocking that.” - Germany’s ‘misinterpreted’ responsibility While Merz has taken some steps, he remains reluctant so far to impose harsher measures against the Israeli government, citing Germany's historical responsibility and its commitment to Israel’s security as part of its “Staatsraeson,” or reason of state. Merz made it clear that while Germany would halt approval of new arms exports, Berlin’s traditional policy of supporting Israel would remain unchanged. He also expressed skepticism about supporting EU measures such as suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement, implementing trade restrictions, or imposing sanctions on far-right Israeli ministers. Martin Kobler, a former German ambassador, underlined that some German politicians often misinterpret the country’s historic responsibility toward Israel, viewing it as an obligation to unconditionally support the Netanyahu government’s actions. “What we call in German ‘Staatsraeson’ refers to being on the side of Israel when it comes to the security of Israel. Now, the events in Gaza, however, they are different, they are contrary to international law,” the diplomat told Anadolu. “They created a humanitarian disaster, an apocalypse in Gaza. Gaza is flattened, it is destroyed, all the basic infrastructure, like hospitals, does not work anymore, and they were deliberately targeted. This is clearly going against international humanitarian law and cannot be tolerated.” - ‘A pariah state’ and German complicity Kobler was among a group of retired diplomats who sent an open letter to Merz last month, urging more pressure on the Netanyahu government to stop its atrocities in Gaza. He emphasized that this is not only Germany’s moral and legal obligation, but also its responsibility to ensure Israel’s long-term security. “I’m very worried as a German that the security of Israel is undermined by what the (Netanyahu) government is doing in Gaza. That is why we are having a more intense discussion in Germany in criticizing the government of Netanyahu, which is supported by ultra-rightists, extremists,” he said. “If Israel violates the most principled, civilized standards of humanity and violates international humanitarian law, this further isolates Israel, and Israel is on the way to becoming a pariah state,” Kobler added. The diplomat also raised the issue of complicity, with Berlin facing a case at the ICJ for alleged complicity in genocide in Gaza. “Those who carry political responsibility in Germany right now have to think about what happens if in two years from now, the International Criminal Court (ICC) or the ICJ come to the conclusion that it was a genocide,” he said. He said the German government’s critical statements towards Israel are not enough, and they must be backed by concrete actions. He advocated for halting all arms exports to Israel, except those essential for its defense against Iran and Hezbollah. “If weapons are used for violating the most principled international humanitarian law and are used in the mass starvation of the population of Gaza, we should stop delivering these weapons,” he said. Kobler emphasized that the German government can exert greater pressure on Israel by joining European partners who have suggested suspending trade agreements or cooperation. He argued that Germany should also follow its close ally France and recognize Palestinian statehood, thereby strengthening its commitment to a political two-state solution. Kobler also stressed that Hamas must treat hostages humanely and release them unconditionally to achieve a ceasefire, further arguing that the group must completely withdraw from Gaza’s political landscape for a lasting political settlement. “I’m definitely of the opinion one should do it at the beginning (of a peace process), and we should join the French initiative in recognizing the state of Palestine,” he added.